Chief Pricing Officer

The Two Faces of Price Volatility

Price volatility in agricultural commodity-based industries wears two faces. Media headlines often portray the ugly visage: market shocks such as the H1N1 outbreak and the spike in demand for ethanol disrupt industries that already face razor-thin margins. On the other hand, it’s often said that swings in market prices provide opportunities to make money, particularly if you’re better prepared to handle price shifts than your competitors. Which face is the true one? Should you try to eliminate price volatility, or actively manage around it?

One answer lies with understanding which factors cause prices to move up and down, whether those factors are at all predictable, and whether the resulting price changes represent dangers or opportunities. Agricultural markets generally exhibit strong seasonality – regular cycles of weather, biological processes, and consumer demand result in a certain amount of predictability in price swings. Such patterns are particularly apparent in the protein industry, which will be a focus of this blog entry. This kind of price volatility can be managed; a good forecast model can allow you to appropriately adjust your forward sales profile to up- and down-markets. The ability to spot market turns earlier and more accurately than your rivals is a competitive advantage. It allows you to adjust your prices sooner, so you avoid taking too long a position in an upswing or facing a fire sale in a downswing.

Seasonality is not the only source of market price changes. Other factors including market supply, access to export markets, changes in retail demand (think consumer downgrading from tenderloins to cheaper end meats in the face of the current recession, or the significant shifts brought about by the Atkins diet), and exchange rates also play significant roles. The predictability of these factors varies, and recent structural changes in agricultural markets have made spotting price shifts even more difficult. Feed prices, which are a driving factor in the price of beef, pork, and poultry, are now tied to the prices of oil through the increasing demand for ethanol. Energy commodities have historically exhibited greater volatility than corn, and some of this additional uncertainty has been translated to the protein and to other agricultural industries.

A common approach to managing unpredictable market price volatility is hedging. Unfortunately the salvage nature of the protein industry makes hedging difficult because orders are taken for products, but futures markets operate on the animal.  There can be significant variation of the product price relative to the animal. The correlation coefficient between product prices and animal prices can range from 0.9 on the high side all the way into negative territory. Hedging of long term contracts against futures may actually add to the contract risk rather than negate it. In general, it is very difficult to find the right hedge position to offset risk for specific transactions.

So market price volatility, while not exactly a benign face, at least provides you with opportunities to out-maneuver your competitors. Other sources of price volatility can be even more troublesome. The figure below shows sales data from a large U.S. meatpacker, altered to protect the source’s identity. We examined every transaction over the course of a year, and computed the percent deviation between the transaction price and the USDA market price. The graph’s horizontal axis shows the deviation from the market prices (0 means the transaction price equaled the market price), and the vertical axis shows the fraction of annual revenue generated by transactions at each deviation. 

Impact of Volatility on Revenue

Price Deviation (%)

While the actual data has been modified, the shape of the graph is correct. Most transactions took place near the market price, but notice that the curve is lopsided. More revenue (meaning a lot more volume) was generated at below-market prices than above the market. Customers recognize a good deal when they seen one, and they pick you off when quoted prices are too low. The result is that mistakes on the low side are a lot more significant than wins on the high side, so focusing on tools and processes that allow you to reduce this form of price volatility will lead to higher overall revenues.

The graph shows variability in the company’s product prices above and beyond any volatility in the USDA market prices. What causes this volatility? A variety of factors, most of which have to do with either the company’s supply position at the time of the transaction, or with the company’s pricing processes. Above-market prices may have been the result of a strong forward sold positions, while price below market may have resulted from a fire sale caused by too low a sold position. Alternatively a low price may reflect an inability to call the market, or a poor negotiation on the part of an individual salesperson.

So what is the true face of volatility: opportunity or risk? Both. Pricers should try to build a two part strategy. First, incorporate better forecasting technology to separate out random volatility from predictable market movements, thereby generating competitive opportunity. Second, stabilize pricing patterns that give customers the opportunity to exploit randomness and pick off low price events.

The art and science of price strategy is not easily understood, let alone mastered. P.J. Jakovljevic at Technology Evaluation Centers (TEC) has undertaken this field as part of TEC’s coverage of supply chain issues.

Jakovljevic demonstrates keen insight in the not-to-be-underestimated area of pricing and offers several interesting articles via the TEC blog. He recently posted Part 2 of his analysis of SignalDemand, which I encourage you to check out, along with his overview of other pricing technology vendors. Here’s a brief excerpt to give you an idea:

Pricing Science of Matching Supply and Demand

Other price optimization solutions really only consider the demand side of the pricing equation, and these results are insufficient for manufacturers to make decisions when they need information on capacity and production constraints as well. SignalDemand’s hand-picked team of scientists and mathematicians from prestigious universities have built a pricing science based on eight pending patents.

This sophisticated science drives the recommendations provided by the software application. When making decisions on margins, the idea is to account for all major profit drivers such as to

• align strategic business objectives with pricing decisions;
• understand demand drivers to forecast future sales;
• account for fluctuating costs;
• on the supply side, account for asset utilization, available capacity, and inventory situation; and
• determine the most profitable product mix for a given demand.

Accounting for all the above factors helps with much more complete, consistent and actionable information to better anticipate future costs, forecast demand, identify poorly performing products or customers, and explore projections in the context of historical sales.

I encourage you to check it out along with his overview of other pricing technology vendors and general supply chain coverage.

SignalDemand: Dealing with Supply- and Demand-side Pricing Matters — Part 1

SignalDemand: Dealing with Supply- and Demand-side Pricing Matters — Part 2

The TEC Supply Chain Logistics Blog

One particular phrase in Obama’s inauguration speech really struck a chord with me and the folks I work with at SignalDemand. Obama declared he would…

“restore science to its rightful place”

To our ears, that sounded like a ringing endorsement for the work we do.

Science isn’t limited to the R&D labs - it should be at the heart of business. Applied science can provide the concrete evidence and predictive models required for making strategic, high-impact business decisions when thousands of variables and millions of potential outcomes are involved - way beyond the realm of standard business software or spreadhsheets. The field of wholesale pricing is a prime example and it’s a white hot area on the cusp of reaching its potential. It’s encouraging to hear that the new administration plans to refocus on science.

So, do you think he’s going to do it? Cast your vote by commenting below on whether Obama will “restore science to its rightful place.”

SignalDemand customer, Hormel, was featured in The New York Times yesterday. In fact, the article was the 4th most emailed story on the NYTimes.com site. According to food reporter Andrew Martin, Hormel is working overtime to supply the nation with what many think of as the most economical of all proteins: Spam.

Though Martin doesn’t name prices or get into marketing strategy in the article, the gist is that, in times of economic belt-tightening, consumers are reaching for the foods they think of first when it comes to penny-pinching. In fact, the Times refers to Spam as “the most emblematic hard-times food in the American pantry.” Here’s a little more from the article, just for fun:

“Spam holds a special place in America’s culinary history, both as a source of humor and of cheap protein during hard times.

Invented duing the Great Depression by Jay Hormel, the son of the company’s founder, Spam is a combination of ham, pork, sugar, salt, water, potato starch and a ‘hint’ of sodium nitrite ‘to help Spam keep its gorgeous pink color,’ according to Hormel’s Web site for the product.

Because it is vacuum-sealed in a can and does not require refrigeration, Spam can last for years. Hormel says ‘it’s like meat with a pause button.’”

Though Hormel President Gary Ray wasn’t quoted in the New York Times story, he shared candid and upbeat “lessons learned” in pricing strategy with other major manufacturers at SIGNALS last month in Las Vegas.

At last week’s SIGNALS 2008, SignalDemand’s annual executive summit, I was honored to participate in discussions and listen to presentations from renowned economists, pricing experts and senior manufacturing executives on the theme of “Forecasting the Future.”

The event was a reality check in terms of what the manufacturing industry is facing - a tightening squeeze due to continuing input cost volatility and, now, an economic crisis that weighs on both ends of the industry: pressure on the production side and shifting demand on the consumer side. But, SIGNALS also offered expert words of wisdom and practical advice on the importance of price strategy to help manufacturers not only survive, but actually thrive in these times.

Some highlights from SIGNALS:

• Dan Ariely, Ph.D. and Duke University professor, shared his astute observations on negotiations and our own weaknesses (more on this in future CPO posts).
• Gary Ray, president of Hormel, highlighted the importance of forecasting and price strategy at Hormel Foods.
• CPO panel: Pricing experts Bill Chandler from Cargill and Scott Newman from Ventura, demonstrated how they have truly elevated the pricing function within their organizations.
• Tom Elam, Ph.D. and president of FarmEcon, an agricultural and food industry consulting firm, presented impressive research on the changing linkages between food and fuel.

Bottom line: If you deal with price strategy in manufacturing, SIGNALS is a must-attend event.

Reuters’ veteran commodities reporter Bob Burgdorfer published a profile of SignalDemand yesterday establishing them as the only company offering a margin optimization solution to the food and meat industries on a large scale. The article was titled “Food Price Volatility Helps SignalDemand” - here is an excerpt:

“…SignalDemand’s software uses algorithms and econometric modeling, allowing customers to input the cost of ingredients such as corn, wheat, or soybean oil, to determine how much to charge for finished products.

Companies  can also calculate how high or low their prices need to be in the future, because sales contracts to restaurants and other food service customers are often for a one-year period.

‘The tremendous volatility is making people nervous about long-term contracts,’ said [Mike] Neal, [CEO of SignalDemand]…”

Commodity markets swinging high and low, combined with the global economic downturn means that manufacturers can’t afford to not be on their toes. Manufacturers need highly accurate forecasts to give them confidence to commit to long-term contracts.

Lucky for them, SignalDemand is up to the task - ready and able to help manufacturers compete in a tight market. (Disclaimer: I am a board advisor for SignalDemand)

Apologies for the late notice, but you’re not going to want to miss this. Tomorrow, Thursday 9/25 at 9:00 a.m. PT/12:00 p.m. ET, the Professional Pricing Society will host a webinar with guest experts from SignalDemand. Bob Pierce, Ph.D., SignalDemand’s Chief Scientist and Mike Freimer, Ph.D., SignalDemand’s Director of Research and Development will take on your toughest pricing challenges. The SignalDemand “Pricing Doctors” have deep expertise in price optimization for manufacturers, an especially challenging field given today’s volatile markets. Per Sjofors, pricing expert and Managing Partner at Ategna, will also offer his insight on the pricing panel, make sure to check out his blog, Best Practice Pricing.

Participants can submit questions in advance to chris@pricingsociety.com to ensure in-depth analysis of pricing concerns, though I’m told the panel will also respond to questions posed during the webinar.

Register now on the PPS site, before space runs out. 

Enter at Your Own Risk

I recently read a report from one of Gartner’s top analysts, Michael Dunne. His estimate of the price optimization and management software market is now up to $150 million for 2007. Further, he believes it will grow over 30% each year for the next few years. That’s impressive, given the that most markets, even software, are shrinking or flat. “The potential for this market is significant,” Dunne states, “because defining and defending optimal prices is a fundamental imperative for enterprises responsible for producing returns for stakeholders.” Amen to that.

It shocks me that smart business managers out there still rely on spreadsheets to make pricing decisions where a penny here or there can have a multi-million dollar impact on the bottom-line. With commodity prices whipsawing, competition increasing, information traveling at the speed of light and product and customer complexity expanding across the globe, how could anyone keep up using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet? Not even a Mensa-certified Ph.D. can race ahead of the speeds and feeds that corporations now face in making pricing decisions. Dunne agrees. “Traditional approaches, such as employing spreadsheets to analyze and manage prices, increasingly are being viewed as inadequate.”

Now’s the time to “Ctl-Alt-Del” that Excel spreadsheet you’re using to make pricing decisions. Wall Street has. The hedge fund guys have. The commodity traders have. When will the manufacturing community take analytics seriously? As Dunn projects, and I agree, they are starting to take notice. Price optimization is now a board-room topic…”Toast that spreadsheet and get us some software that will systematically improve not only our pricing practices and strategies, it will add millions to our margins and bottom-line profits.” Great call. And if your big enough, that could easily be over $150 million in the next few years.

So who should you call? In the June 30, 2008 Gartner report, Dunn cites among others: Oracle-Siebel (www.oracle.com), Oracle E-Business Suite (www.oracle.com), PROS Holdings (www.pros.com) and SignalDemand (www.signaldemand.com). By the way, if you want SaaS (Software as a Service), which everyone is clamoring for these days, SiganlDemand is the only pricing software dedicated to the on-demand delivery model. Also included in Dunn’s list? Microsoft (www.microsoft.com) So even if you do smart-bomb that Excel spreadsheet, the folks in Redmond have plenty of other cool stuff for you.

Here’s one more reason for putting science-based software in your pricing process.  Next time you’re renegotiating contract prices, pull this one out.  - Rip

The CEO of a large manufacturer posted a job for a new Vice President of Pricing.  The HR department screened hundreds of resumes and presented three finalists: a mathematician, an accountant and an economist.

So the CEO calls in the mathematician and asks: “What do two plus two equal?” The mathematician replies “Four.”  The CEO asks: “Four, exactly?” The mathematician looks at the CEO incredulously and says “Yes, four, exactly.”

Then the CEO calls in the accountant and asks the same question “What do two plus two equal?” The accountant says “On average, four - give or take ten percent, but on average, four.”

Then the CEO calls in the economist and poses the same question “What do two plus two equal?” The economist gets up, locks the door, closes the shade, sits down next to the CEO and whispers: “What do you want it to equal?” 

Who needs price optimization?  Any business-to-business (B2B) corporation, of course.  But with all kinds of software vendors and consultants pitching all kinds of tools and capabilities, where do you start? 

First, you must start with a solid definition of what “price optimization” means.  Otherwise you introduce a Tower of Babel to your sales, marketing and finance organizations.  Speak the same language.  I’ve searched all the vendor and industry analyst websites and have met with a number of software insiders to develop my own definition of the “price optimization” market.  It works.  It’s battle-tested.  Because, actually, it’s three definitions, not one.

Before I define them for you, here’s the “language” I opted to employ in the formulation.  First, I’m using a commercial definition - B2B - big companies selling lots of products to lots of other companies.  Second, I’m only looking at closed-loop pricing processes such as price analytics, price optimization and price execution.  Third, many of the vendors out there only deal with “demand-side” pricing, that is, they only consider optimizing one end of the supply chain - the customer end.  So the definitions from small little software folks like Vendavo and Zilliant did not make my cut, since price optimization must encompass the entire value chain - the “supply-side” and the “demand-side.” 

So here are the three categories of the price optimization market with an easy to remember moniker: A-E-S-O-P.  That’s right, the fable guy.

ANALYTICS.  At the front end of the price optimization machine lies ANALYTICS, those functions that help you to identify and uncover historical trends in your pricing.  Usually analytics means shoving a bunch of transactional and contract data into databases or spreadsheets and divining out some insight.  Lots of folks sell analytical tools, cloaked these days in fancy terms like Business Intelligence and Knowledge Management.  Most of it is just ANALYTICS.  It’s useful, it helps to uncover market dynamics or ferret out pricing anomolies.  Every software company in the pricing space has some capability here.  Mostly (sadly) people rely on spreadsheets for this.

EXECUTION is what you do once you’ve conducted your analysis.  Price Execution is all about the functionality that supports making pricing decisions - disseminating pricing information, providing guidance on pricing practices and deal negotiations.  It’s often bundled with automation in the form of review and approval processes.  Folks like SignalDemand, SAP and Oracle provide execution capabilities.

Lastly (and most importantly) we come to STRATEGIC OPTIMZATION of PRICES.  The SOP in our AESOP moniker.  SOP is all about the modeling and rules that go into identifying and defining optimal pricing strategies and price bands.   Here, the only true end-to-end price optimization solution is SignalDemand (www.signaldemand.com) since in our definition, prices are as much about supply-side levers as they are about demand-side levers.  (And actually, it’s not software, it’s SaaS - software as a service - so it’s fast and easy to implement and run.)

So there are the 3 categories of price optimization, AESOP = Analystics, Execution, and Strategic Optimization of Pricing.  If you are thinking of buying software, consider AESOP and make sure you are covering the full spectrum, otherwise the emperor won’t be wearing any clothes to the board meeting on margin imporvement and profit optimization.

Vendors Cited:

Oracle (www.oracle.com)

SAP (www.SAP.com)

SignalDemand (www.signaldemand.com)