Chief Pricing Officer

Today Businessweek magazine is featuring comments from my friend and colleague Mike Neal (CEO, SignalDemand) on its homepage in reference to the article “Grocery Stores Fight Back Against Food Prices.”

According to its editorial staff, Businessweek’s new online “In Your Face” section highlights readers that offer “smart, incisive comments that move the conversation forward” - and this week the topic is Food 2.0:

The article is a worthwhile read, taking a look at the quickly forming “battleground” over food prices. Here’s an excerpt to give you an idea:

A year ago, when the cost of commodities such as wheat, oil, and corn was soaring, grocers grudgingly accepted price increases from Kellogg (K), General Mills (GIS), H.J. Heinz, (HNZ) and other food manufacturers. The strange thing is, those price tags never came back down, even when commodity prices collapsed in the fourth quarter of 2008. As a result, grocers have little cheer to offer their shoppers at a time of deepening economic gloom. “The prices don’t seem to go down as fast as they go up,” says Jeffrey Noddle, CEO of Minneapolis-based Supervalu, one of the nation’s leading grocers.

Now, the grocers are demanding action. On Jan. 7, Noddle told analysts to expect a “battleground” over the next six months as he pressures manufacturers to adjust their prices. And if they refuse? “In almost every category,” notes Noddle, “you have other vendors to look to.”

The food companies recognize that increases in the price of food outpaced commodity inflation during the fourth quarter last year, which should have resulted in higher profits. However, they argue, previous price hikes didn’t completely cover escalating production and commodity costs….

And for your convenience, Mike Neal’s comments in full:

Every major food producer has been anticipating this impasse. The problem lies in the fact that many producers don’t have the ability to accurately resassess their risk if they were to adjust prices. In order to confidently renegotiate contract prices, food producers must be able to accurately calculate the impact of price changes on volumes and margins, for each product line and customer contract.

Part of that calculation is a prediction of the success of demand shaping with strategic price changes. Without this knowledge and assurance, food producers with long term contracts could be effectively signing their own death warrants if faced with another jump in commodity prices.

Fortunately, technology has caught up with the pressures of the global marketplace and food producers are starting to adopt technologies that allow them to bring a new transparency and confidence to price strategy and contract negotiations. I envision that a new role - Chief Pricing Officer - will emerge from this awareness of the powerful strategic role pricing can play in the enterprise.

All you price professionals out there - what’s your take? Weigh in with a comment of you own on ChiefPricingOfficer.com.

Rip

SignalDemand customer, Hormel, was featured in The New York Times yesterday. In fact, the article was the 4th most emailed story on the NYTimes.com site. According to food reporter Andrew Martin, Hormel is working overtime to supply the nation with what many think of as the most economical of all proteins: Spam.

Though Martin doesn’t name prices or get into marketing strategy in the article, the gist is that, in times of economic belt-tightening, consumers are reaching for the foods they think of first when it comes to penny-pinching. In fact, the Times refers to Spam as “the most emblematic hard-times food in the American pantry.” Here’s a little more from the article, just for fun:

“Spam holds a special place in America’s culinary history, both as a source of humor and of cheap protein during hard times.

Invented duing the Great Depression by Jay Hormel, the son of the company’s founder, Spam is a combination of ham, pork, sugar, salt, water, potato starch and a ‘hint’ of sodium nitrite ‘to help Spam keep its gorgeous pink color,’ according to Hormel’s Web site for the product.

Because it is vacuum-sealed in a can and does not require refrigeration, Spam can last for years. Hormel says ‘it’s like meat with a pause button.’”

Though Hormel President Gary Ray wasn’t quoted in the New York Times story, he shared candid and upbeat “lessons learned” in pricing strategy with other major manufacturers at SIGNALS last month in Las Vegas.

Need more proof that pricing is more important than ever? Well, how about this headline from the Associated Press: “Food Prices Remain Stuck at High Levels.”

The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) released its quarterly survey of retail food prices and found that even though gas prices and other costs of production may have dropped slightly, manufacturers are still feeling the pinch of rising production costs. Of the 16 items surveyed in the study, 11 went up in price, while only five went down. The overall price increase for these 16 items was 10.5 percent. Among the products that went up: pork chops, sirloin tip, ground chuck, cheese, apples and potatoes. The reason?

“We continue to see increases in several staple food items due primarily to the long-term effects of high energy prices in the food sector. Sustained high costs for processing, hauling and refrigerating food products are reverberating at the retail level,” said Jim Sartwelle, an AFBF economist.

Regarding the top gainer in this quarter’s survey, Sartwelle explained, “Acreage planted to potatoes was down nearly 8 percent this year. The combination of a smaller crop and some production losses in the field has led to higher-priced spuds in the produce aisle.”

The reality for food producers is that price spikes are here to stay - at least for the foreseeable future. So, what to do? Producers and manufacturers need to find a balance between maintaining profits without passing too many costs off to consumers. With proper insight into prices across channels, customers and product lines, producers should be able to make smart decisions about where margins can be maximized and where demand can be shaped with price in order to drive profitability without across-the-board price increases.

Reuters’ veteran commodities reporter Bob Burgdorfer published a profile of SignalDemand yesterday establishing them as the only company offering a margin optimization solution to the food and meat industries on a large scale. The article was titled “Food Price Volatility Helps SignalDemand” - here is an excerpt:

“…SignalDemand’s software uses algorithms and econometric modeling, allowing customers to input the cost of ingredients such as corn, wheat, or soybean oil, to determine how much to charge for finished products.

Companies  can also calculate how high or low their prices need to be in the future, because sales contracts to restaurants and other food service customers are often for a one-year period.

‘The tremendous volatility is making people nervous about long-term contracts,’ said [Mike] Neal, [CEO of SignalDemand]…”

Commodity markets swinging high and low, combined with the global economic downturn means that manufacturers can’t afford to not be on their toes. Manufacturers need highly accurate forecasts to give them confidence to commit to long-term contracts.

Lucky for them, SignalDemand is up to the task - ready and able to help manufacturers compete in a tight market. (Disclaimer: I am a board advisor for SignalDemand)