Chief Pricing Officer

Today Businessweek magazine is featuring comments from my friend and colleague Mike Neal (CEO, SignalDemand) on its homepage in reference to the article “Grocery Stores Fight Back Against Food Prices.”

According to its editorial staff, Businessweek’s new online “In Your Face” section highlights readers that offer “smart, incisive comments that move the conversation forward” - and this week the topic is Food 2.0:

The article is a worthwhile read, taking a look at the quickly forming “battleground” over food prices. Here’s an excerpt to give you an idea:

A year ago, when the cost of commodities such as wheat, oil, and corn was soaring, grocers grudgingly accepted price increases from Kellogg (K), General Mills (GIS), H.J. Heinz, (HNZ) and other food manufacturers. The strange thing is, those price tags never came back down, even when commodity prices collapsed in the fourth quarter of 2008. As a result, grocers have little cheer to offer their shoppers at a time of deepening economic gloom. “The prices don’t seem to go down as fast as they go up,” says Jeffrey Noddle, CEO of Minneapolis-based Supervalu, one of the nation’s leading grocers.

Now, the grocers are demanding action. On Jan. 7, Noddle told analysts to expect a “battleground” over the next six months as he pressures manufacturers to adjust their prices. And if they refuse? “In almost every category,” notes Noddle, “you have other vendors to look to.”

The food companies recognize that increases in the price of food outpaced commodity inflation during the fourth quarter last year, which should have resulted in higher profits. However, they argue, previous price hikes didn’t completely cover escalating production and commodity costs….

And for your convenience, Mike Neal’s comments in full:

Every major food producer has been anticipating this impasse. The problem lies in the fact that many producers don’t have the ability to accurately resassess their risk if they were to adjust prices. In order to confidently renegotiate contract prices, food producers must be able to accurately calculate the impact of price changes on volumes and margins, for each product line and customer contract.

Part of that calculation is a prediction of the success of demand shaping with strategic price changes. Without this knowledge and assurance, food producers with long term contracts could be effectively signing their own death warrants if faced with another jump in commodity prices.

Fortunately, technology has caught up with the pressures of the global marketplace and food producers are starting to adopt technologies that allow them to bring a new transparency and confidence to price strategy and contract negotiations. I envision that a new role - Chief Pricing Officer - will emerge from this awareness of the powerful strategic role pricing can play in the enterprise.

All you price professionals out there - what’s your take? Weigh in with a comment of you own on ChiefPricingOfficer.com.

Rip

One particular phrase in Obama’s inauguration speech really struck a chord with me and the folks I work with at SignalDemand. Obama declared he would…

“restore science to its rightful place”

To our ears, that sounded like a ringing endorsement for the work we do.

Science isn’t limited to the R&D labs - it should be at the heart of business. Applied science can provide the concrete evidence and predictive models required for making strategic, high-impact business decisions when thousands of variables and millions of potential outcomes are involved - way beyond the realm of standard business software or spreadhsheets. The field of wholesale pricing is a prime example and it’s a white hot area on the cusp of reaching its potential. It’s encouraging to hear that the new administration plans to refocus on science.

So, do you think he’s going to do it? Cast your vote by commenting below on whether Obama will “restore science to its rightful place.”

I first met Seth Godin, the prolific internet marketeer from the early Yahoo! days, in New York City. It was midnight and we were standing next to one another at the Marriott reception counter, checking in, both fresh from the United flight from SFO. We were both speaking at the DMA conference (me on email marketing, Seth on everything). We conversed on optimizing the check-in procedures, refining the experience. Not much has changed on that front, but here he is, circa 2009, talking about pricing on his blog:

Change your pricing

When a restaurant goes from a la carte to either a buffet or a prix fixe meal, it is able to find a new class of customers.

Could a law firm charge by the project? When I incorporated Yoyodyne, a fancy firm charged us a fix rate.

Netflix went from charging by the rental to charging by the month.

We use tolls to charge people who drive over bridges more than other folks. We don’t hesitate to charge people ordering steak more than people ordering pasta in a restaurant. Could the library charge frequent readers more? What about insurance companies charging more to young families (more likely to have a baby).

Ski areas have a huge fixed cost base (land, grooming, etc.) so they get greedy, sell too many lift tickets and the lines get long. Fixed pricing encourages people to ski a lot, at peak times. What if only cost $3 to get on the mountain, plus a small charge for each lift ride and a premium price for popular lifts at popular times? The technology is already there, the only reason not to try it is momentum.

If you’re a copywriter or masseuse or other sort of freelancer, how many retainer clients do you need to relax and spend more time on the work, less on the billing/looking part? What happens when an artist does this?

Why don’t airlines experiment with auctioning of seats, baseball card style? You could buy the rights to a seat for $200 (speculating, if you like) and then try to sell it off as the flight time get closer–it’s not hard to imagine an easy to use website for these transactions. The seat might change hands a dozen times, earning the airline a processing fee each time, and enriching those that want to start trading this expiring commodity. Sports teams are already trying to figure out how to make this work.

Changing your pricing changes your story.

The market for turkeys is somewhat of an odd duck – demand is wholly seasonal and competition is fierce. And price is typically the main lever to compete. According to the American Farm Bureau, turkey prices have gone up in the past year – but not a whole lot.

Still, the AFB still said that the average price of a Thanksgiving dinner, when adjusted for inflation, is still less than it was in 1988. That adds up to an unhappy situation for some food manufacturers.

With higher costs for key ingredients such as corn, soybeans and oil, turkey processors are under pressure and have to plan a year in advance for the one day a year they count on most.

Some 46 million turkeys will be eaten on Thanksgiving Day, about the same as in previous years, said Sherrie Rosenblatt, spokeswoman for the National Turkey Federation.

“That’s basically most Americans having turkey at the center of their plate,” she said.

Consumers will see good prices this year, Rosenblatt said, because retailers will again heavily advertise turkey at low prices in the hopes that shoppers drawn in by lower turkey price will buy lots of other products.

Turkey sales are an interesting case study in pricing because demand is so seasonal. How do you sell more Christmas trees than the guy next door? The typical answer is to undercut him on price. Same goes for any seasonal commodity.

Happy Turkey Day from the Chief Pricing Officer!

Anyone who watches football on Sunday probably has Toyota’s “Saved by Zero” jingle permanently (and annoyingly) ingrained in their head, and recent news shows that Ford is employing a similar tactic to boost sales. In addition to joining its colleagues on Capitol Hill to ask for some federal financial help, Ford has come out with an employee-pricing-for-all strategy after the company’s sales plummeted by 30 percent last month.

The use of employee-pricing tactics is touted as “an interesting experiment in fixed pricing” by the all-things-automotive gurus at Edmunds.com. And indeed, being offered an “insider’s” rate is certainly an enticing psychological gimmick. Actually, the folks at Edmunds call it a gimmick and a spade: “You can call it employee pricing or rebates or incentives or deep discounts, but the bottom line is the bottom line: Cut prices, sell more.” (Last week’s “Family & Friends Discount” offered by Gap, Inc. is another example).

When it comes to pricing, there is obviously a huge psychological factor: People associate any lower-than-retail pricing as scoring a deal and when billed as an inside deal, the result is to feel way more special than one’s fellow consumers. Certainly not a new ploy, but as evidenced by some of the U.S.’s largest retailers, a tried-and-true way to move a lot of volume in a short amount of time.

What is the long-term implication of these strategies? While it’s true that the thinness of everyone’s wallets results in less buying, the downturn doesn’t negate the need for informed, reality-based pricing as a foundation for our economy. Downturns, big and small, have happened before, and that data can be injected into pricing approaches today. No matter what the economic climate, we need to work toward pricing – whether it’s for cars, cable-knit sweaters, or lamb chops – that is informed by the cost, supply and demand factors that matter for profitability.

SignalDemand customer, Hormel, was featured in The New York Times yesterday. In fact, the article was the 4th most emailed story on the NYTimes.com site. According to food reporter Andrew Martin, Hormel is working overtime to supply the nation with what many think of as the most economical of all proteins: Spam.

Though Martin doesn’t name prices or get into marketing strategy in the article, the gist is that, in times of economic belt-tightening, consumers are reaching for the foods they think of first when it comes to penny-pinching. In fact, the Times refers to Spam as “the most emblematic hard-times food in the American pantry.” Here’s a little more from the article, just for fun:

“Spam holds a special place in America’s culinary history, both as a source of humor and of cheap protein during hard times.

Invented duing the Great Depression by Jay Hormel, the son of the company’s founder, Spam is a combination of ham, pork, sugar, salt, water, potato starch and a ‘hint’ of sodium nitrite ‘to help Spam keep its gorgeous pink color,’ according to Hormel’s Web site for the product.

Because it is vacuum-sealed in a can and does not require refrigeration, Spam can last for years. Hormel says ‘it’s like meat with a pause button.’”

Though Hormel President Gary Ray wasn’t quoted in the New York Times story, he shared candid and upbeat “lessons learned” in pricing strategy with other major manufacturers at SIGNALS last month in Las Vegas.

As mentioned previously in the CPO blog, the 2008 SIGNALS event’s keynote speaker was best-selling author and Duke University professor Dan Ariely. Of course, as the economy and election aftermath take center stage, it would make sense to see the behavioral economist’s commentary all over the media:

Business Week:  “Homeowners cling to false optimism about own home”
Scientific American:  “Who has a better sense of humor – Liberals or conservatives?”
The New York Times: “Eyes Off the Price”

But whether we’re talking about the housing slump, politics or the gas pump, his observations show us that the human and emotional sides to pricing are very real. In the BusinessWeek article regarding real estate pricing, Ariely says, “To a homeowner, a low, but realistic, listing price is ‘like someone calling your kids ugly.’” And in relation to that weekly fill-up, he slyly notes, “Perhaps it would be better if gas station attendants filled the tank for us, as they used to, so we did not stand at the pump watching the rising price of our gasoline.”

As he highlights the emotions surrounding our sense of pricing and what we feel that things should cost, I am reminded of what this means on a larger scale: Manufacturers dealing in millions of widgets, barrels of oil, or bushels of wheat aren’t immune to the pitfalls of what is essentially irrational human behavior. But if they are to compete in today’s economy, they have to make the effort to stay above the fray.

Price optimization science – integrating as much historical, economic, and market-based data as possible – is essential to achieving this. The key word here is science: Every price should be as informed as possible and framed in the most current and relevant context available. And while there is always going to be an emotional component to the prices that humans negotiate with other humans, the goal should be – especially for complex and many-tiered industries – decreasing the weight that those emotional factors play.

Experts like Ariely throw very valid questions into the mix, and the marketplace of ideas is the better for their contributions. But how can we mitigate the irrationality in our own pricing behavior? Information is key in that battle. With everything available to us at the push of a button, it’s almost foolish to not use as much data as possible to make decisions – be it to guide our decision making, or to prove or justify a hunch or gut feeling. Information can help us better rationalize the choices we make, and it’s key to helping us make pricing decisions that make sense, both today and tomorrow.

There was an interesting Wall Street Journal story last week about retailers pushing back against rising food prices. With the cost of oil falling and commodities prices leveling off, retailers may now be resisting manufacturers’ price hikes:

With corn, wheat and other commodity costs coming off their summer peaks and the economy continuing its slide, grocery chains in the U.S. and abroad are balking at food makers’ efforts to raise prices further.

Some retailers are using food companies’ earnings reports as leverage to reject price increases, according to industry analysts. Others are pushing for more promotional allowances – such as buy-one-get-one-free deals – to help move higher volumes of goods.

These actions serve as a not-so-subtle reminder that companies need to be mindful of where prices are going, not just where they’ve been. Being proactive about pricing – spending time to forecast upward or downward trends – allows manufacturers to proactively adjust prices, rather than price in reaction to retailers’ requests.

Retailers are now understandably sensitive about passing along additional costs to consumers, so manufacturers need to be even smarter in how they price each product in their portfolio. Rather than across the board price increases, manufacturers need to carefully examine profitability by customer, channel and product mix.

Need more proof that pricing is more important than ever? Well, how about this headline from the Associated Press: “Food Prices Remain Stuck at High Levels.”

The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) released its quarterly survey of retail food prices and found that even though gas prices and other costs of production may have dropped slightly, manufacturers are still feeling the pinch of rising production costs. Of the 16 items surveyed in the study, 11 went up in price, while only five went down. The overall price increase for these 16 items was 10.5 percent. Among the products that went up: pork chops, sirloin tip, ground chuck, cheese, apples and potatoes. The reason?

“We continue to see increases in several staple food items due primarily to the long-term effects of high energy prices in the food sector. Sustained high costs for processing, hauling and refrigerating food products are reverberating at the retail level,” said Jim Sartwelle, an AFBF economist.

Regarding the top gainer in this quarter’s survey, Sartwelle explained, “Acreage planted to potatoes was down nearly 8 percent this year. The combination of a smaller crop and some production losses in the field has led to higher-priced spuds in the produce aisle.”

The reality for food producers is that price spikes are here to stay - at least for the foreseeable future. So, what to do? Producers and manufacturers need to find a balance between maintaining profits without passing too many costs off to consumers. With proper insight into prices across channels, customers and product lines, producers should be able to make smart decisions about where margins can be maximized and where demand can be shaped with price in order to drive profitability without across-the-board price increases.